First, look at the deep trough forecasted to develop on THU 10/29 over the area with cold air pouring out of Canada. Notice the upper airflow coming from the cold Northwest? Looks cold doesn't it?
Take a look at the 540 (rain/snow line) isotherm at the 500-1000mb level poking down into the region early next week with some moisture around. Models show the cold air aloft staying around for a few days.
Also, the 850mb (about 6K feet up) isotherm goes south of the area with below freezing temps aloft above the line.
Finally, the GFS is showing high pressure out in the pacific bringing down colder air (40's) in a N-NWLY flow at the surface.
These images are from today's 18Z GFS run. Most precip that falls would be Snow based on this GFS run. Please don't take too much of this to heart as it is still several days away and the errors could be quite large, at the very least we should see some colder temperatures around here (below normal), snow in the mountains, and some cold trick or treaters :)
~ Steve
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I am happy to read another blog about northwest weather, thanks for starting up a blog. I really hope we have an exciting fall and winter this year, I would love to repeat last winters snow storm. I have read that even with el nino it can take a while for it to really start messing with our weather.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think EL Nino won't seriously affect the weather pattern around here until December. If we are going to see exciting weather, we may have a short window here as the storm track should go south into CA sometime early in the winter.
ReplyDeleteGood insight on El Nino. The main effects will be felt later on during the winter months. Seems like we have typical early fall weather and I would say this year has been no exception. You said the the precip. on the GFS is snow. Can you be more clear and define on locations for this? Thanks Steve
ReplyDeleteSmokejumper....way to early to pinpoint exactly how low the Snow levels would be. SL would be at least below Snoqualmie Pass and maybe even low enough for a few flurries atop Cougar/Tiger mountains in the Issaquah Alps...Surface temperatures appear to be a little too warm for any flurries near the surface at this time....More details as we draw closer to next week...HIgh temps in the Seattle Metro should be between 45-52 starting next week....
ReplyDeleteHave you looked at the extended GFS on Friday the 30th? Interesting route for a low pressure system to take, looks like it could be around 980 mb as it approaches the north washington coast, this is kind of the opposite direction you see our storms go.
ReplyDeleteAre you going to be able to update your site more often?
ReplyDeleteYeah, it appears the GFS has strayed away from that solution. Looks like a typical start to the month of November.
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